Wild, Off The Cuff Predictions For Future Conflicts.

by Daniel Russ on May 27, 2010

Earth, Home

Predictions For The Coming World.

At the end of World War II there were around 100 countries. Today there are around 200 countries depending on whom you ask. The trend is overwhelming in its magnitude. The freedoms we all fought so hard for during the Second World War have apparently fed a thirst for independence around the world that has been little noted in my opinion. People want to be around the like minded. When Marshall Tito died, the strongman who built a sense of national unity against the overbearing nature of the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia lost its major raison d’etre. When the USSR crumbled, there was nothing left to prop up the tenuous sense of “us” in the Balkans. Yugoslavia is now Kosovo, Montenegro, Bosnia, Croatia, Serbia and who knows what other municipality will want it’s own banking system and army? The fact is, digital technology also makes it easier to establish networks of closely allied groups create financial networks and even create government itself. The Balkans exploded in a miasmic racial divide started by Milosevic but fueled by the Balkan rednecks known as the Serbians. It didn’t take long for the veil of civilization to fall, showing how gauzy and insubstantial it sometimes is.

If anything corporations are combining and nations are splitting. And you have to wonder whether it serves the interests of corporations, multiple-nationals in particular, to have more, smaller, disparate countries to deal with than huge empires. The answer is very obvious if you’re as paranoid as I am. I think about our so demonized a military industrial complex. Once we had a dozen companies that could bid on a combat aircraft. Curtis, Northrup, North American, Grumman, Douglas, McDonnell, Martin, Lockheed. I could go on without tapping Wikipedia. Now we have like three companies, and…..dozens more possible buyers.

Hmmmm

What I find disturbing is the chasm developing in the United States of America that seems well wide enough to do the same to this country that years of simmering hatred did to the Balkans. I can see where the splits might start and here are some loose predictions and observations about this.

Not long ago, Arizona passed a draconian anti-immigrant bill on the border of the biggest immigrant state in the union, California.  In response, California pro immigrant groups have been pouring money and personnel into massive rallies, and California groups are canceling business. Now Arizona is threatening to cut Californian off of its electrical grid. There is a rub that could come to open conflict. I could see this as two check points from each side facing each other just to harass the drivers with the wrong tags. Perhaps California might retaliate with some other cross border ban. When this sort of state’s rights hooliganism begins don’t look to Obama to fix it.

South Carolina or Oklahoma will be the first states to declare their sovereignty over the national government. It is very likely that Federal troops would show up in force at such a moment. Their legislatures are heading that way and certainly the political rhetoric has been headed that way as well. Little remains sacred out of the original US Constitution in the coming Divided States of America. Texans might one day learn that they cannot transport guns into the state of California without special licensing, and on that day Texans will turn around and vacation in New Mexico.

It is very likely that within our lifetime there will be several travel watch lists, those held by the federal authorities and those held by states. Look to repealing the Tenth Amendment as the beginning of the split between the states. It is possible one day that the south will declare itself to be a new Confederated States and demand a visa to enter and exit.

There will be parts of the country that practice torture and parts that don’t. Constitutional protections are spotty and essentially worthless. Corruption at the local level spreads much like Moscow today.

Wars will go on around the globe but as combatants get smaller there will be smaller and less global and less regional warfare than today. Wars will fall into two categories generally- assymetrical warfare played out as indigenous resistance versus occupying armies; and small fast hot wars between newly formed states. Think Chechnya/Russia for another 30 years and think Sri Kanka/Tamils.

Expect massive unrest in Thailand to continue as this is not about political parties it is about a massive poor underclass that wants a Bastille Day type of overthrow of a privileged and cronyistic upper class. This very thing could happen again.

The Taliban have something they haven’t had in years: momentum. In fact they are enjoying this momentum on the tails of what is being painted as two US losses – the withdrawal from Korengal Valley and the continuing struggle in Marja. The big fear is they actually over run a major base, but they are pressing the attack and expect this to continue. Believe me, Khandahar could be Obama’s Dien Bien Phu. Expect the US effort in Afghanistan to fizzle out and reduce itself to a negotiated agreement between the Taliban and ISAF. Also expect it to be cynically exploited and violated by the Taliban just to humiliate the US. Both sides will look for ways to call the disengagement a win and save face.

Expect Iraq to split into three countries or new regions and much war will follow.  To the north will be Kurdistan and the Turks will crush them. It is possible that allies , seeking oil contracts will side with Free Kurdistan and establish a country in between Turkey and El Anbar Province. The Sunni majority will fight to maintain power in what will become the Republic of Anbar, mostly located in classical Mesopotamia. To the south will be the Shia Republic of Iraq.

You heard it here first folks.

Hezbollah is itching for a fight with Israel and this is what I bet would be their play. Let the new Netanyahu-settlements argument fester between the US and Israel…until the US does something it has never done before- openly part ways with Israel, drastically reduce military aid and vote against Israel in the UN. At that moment, the new Hezbollah with new tunnels inside the hills to the north of Israel, armed to the teeth with MANPAD AT weaponry will spring out and attempt to retake the Golan Heights. Israel will beg the US for vital military help and the Obama Administration will get concessions out of the Israelis on no more settlements in The West Bank. Then Hezbollah which can fight but not hold ground will disappear into the tunnels again, appearing to have won. Obama would be the winner in that scenario but also called an appeaser by Tea Partiers.

Eventually there will be a civil war in China or outbreaks of violent civil unrest as the Chinese government railroads legislation and process through and over people. China will have the dominant economy for the next hundred years and China remains wildly patriotic and proud as it has a growing economy. China will build out a robust blue water navy, and introduce fifth generation fighter aircraft,  but China will become the world’s first superpower with a second place army. China and India will emerge supreme in cyber warfare.

Expect full scale civil war in Pakistan and an attempt to stage a coup d’état by the extremists, who will lose handily when UN or NATO troops join the fun in force.

The Texas-Mexican border may become so violent that Mexico itself finds an ersatz regional government beyond the authority of the national government within it’s own borders. We may see heavily armed Mexican drug gangs ambushing US forces on the border. More likely a fight breaks out between the Mexican drug cartels and the US private security forces surely to benefit from the relative insecurity.

In congress this fall, the Democrats lose about twenty seats in Congress and a few Senatorial seats, but actually come out more powerful as the Democrats voted in are actual Democrats. It won’t be the blow out everyone is expecting.

The gulf coast BP oil leak will create tremendous economic fallout all along the Gulf Coast and the Florida coastline will effectively see billions in damages and this will have those Floridian Reaganites howling for a bailout. They will get one. The one that Katrina victims never got.

OK, and no sooner did I say this and now the Republicans in the red states are all wanting the US to take on the clean up. From Bob Cesca at Huffpost:

A major corporation, not unlike General Motors or Bank of America or WellPoint, failed to properly outfit one of its deep-water oil drilling platforms with the proper failsafe mechanisms and a chain reaction of death and destruction ensued. The Transocean Deepwater-Horizon oil rig, leased by British Petroleum, exploded and eventually sank 5,000 feet to the bottom of the Gulf of Mexico, snapping its drilling riser in several places which, consequently, is spewing black gushers of oil into the ocean at a rate of upwards of a million gallons per day.

And suddenly all of these state’s rights, anti-government takeover Republicans are demanding a government takeover of the capping and cleanup process. (If only someone had blasted uninsured Americans in the face with reddish-brown crude oil, the health care reform bill might have received a few Republican votes.)

Bobby Jindal, the state’s rights small government governor who tried to block stimulus money from entering Louisiana (though it didn’t stop him from eventually accepting giant checks during photo-ops), is demanding that the federal government take over the handling of the disaster.

Jindal said in his now infamous TV address, “Instead of monitoring volcanoes, what Congress should be monitoring is the eruption of spending in Washington, D.C.”

Zing! POW!

But now, with a different kind of eruption 25 miles off the shores of Louisiana, Jindal can’t walk past an open microphone without begging for the federal government’s help in cleaning up BP’s mess. A government takeover of a private corporation’s mess for the sake of protecting American jobs and natural resources? Sounds not unlike the justification for the recovery bill and the bailouts.

Last weekend, Sarah Palin appeared on Fox News Sunday with her shrill, staccotto word salads and made a similar case. She very clearly contradicted Rand Paul, whom she endorsed, by wondering why President Obama is “taking so doggone long to get in there, to dive in there…”

So one half of the 2008 Republican presidential “drill, baby, drill” ticket which, by the way, accepted $2.4 million in contributions from oil companies (double the amount donated to the Obama-Biden ticket), called for a government takeover of the BP situation, and lamented that it wasn’t happening because the president’s campaign accepted oil money. This is such a twisted, Mobius Loop of backwards logic and opposite-day thinking, it’s difficult to summarize it without also becoming trapped in the same tangle of stupid. Something tells me that’s the whole idea. Anyway.

Here’s Sean Hannity, who very likely repeated the Luntz “government takeover” meme more often than any other Republican last year, complaining that the president and the federal government “outsourced” the oil spill crisis to BP — the very company that’s responsible for actually creating the mess. “Outsourced,” we’re to assume, as opposed to spending taxpayer money to solve the crisis.

Hannity himself said, “This is the worst environmental disaster and [the administration] did nothing from day one.” And, “Bobby Jindal has been begging for help and it’s not been forthcoming.”

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{ 1 comment… read it below or add one }

Corsair8X June 9, 2010 at 3:55 pm

I’ve heard the Iraqi breakup scenario from many sources long before now.

Serb rednecks? Aren’t you the one constantly trumpeting about the lazy media too eager to take shortcuts in presenting a story? Like any civil war there are lots of reasons. One blowhard yells the loudest, but thugs of all stripes take advantage of the instability. Atrocities abounded on all sides. As people I know personally who served there have stated – they’re all to blame for this mess.

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